Rubella

UKHSA rubella model

Lead modellers: Emilia Vynnycky

Institution(s): UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)

Brief description of model:

This is an age-structured model of the transmission dynamics of rubella in each country, for which the force of infection changes over time. Contact was described using a matrix of “who acquires infection from whom” with the parameters differing between the age groups <13 and ≥13 years. The contact parameters are calculated from the average force of infection in these age groups, calculated from age-stratified rubella seroprevalence data collected before the introduction of rubella vaccine. For countries for which no seroprevalence data were available, the contact parameters were calculated from seroprevalence data compiled through bootstrapping from the seroprevalence datasets available from the WHO.

Summary of the catalytic models used in the analyses of serological data.

Note that the lower case letter “a” in the equations below refers to the single year band, whereas “A” (see Eq 1 in the main text) refers to those in the age group of interest, A.

Key publication(s):

Link to publicly available code (where available):

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UGA rubella model

Lead modeller: Amy Winter

Link to all modelling group members

Institution(s): University of Georgia (UGA) and Johns Hopkins University

Brief description of model:

This is an age-structured transmission model, with the population structured into five epidemiological stages (maternally immune, susceptible, infected, recovered, vaccinated) and 321 age classes. This model allows for direct estimation of the number of rubella infections and CRS cases, and the resulting numbers of deaths and DALYs lost. It provides the complexity needed to account for shifting demographics and varying vaccination scenarios, yet the flexibility to perform well using readily available data and parameters.

Key publication(s):

Link to publicly available code (where available):